The radio horizon is about 15% beyond the geometric horizon
Atmospheric refraction bends VHF/UHF slightly downward, so the radio horizon is about 15 percent farther than the geometric horizon. Both grow with the square root of antenna height.
Top: exaggerated side view. Bottom: distances in miles from d = 1.22 × √height (geometric) and 1.41 × √height (radio).
Radio ÷ geometric1.15× (about 15% farther)
RememberRadio horizon: about 15 percent farther.
Flares blackout fast; CMEs storm later
A solar flare sends X-rays that reach us at light speed and cause short-term radio blackouts. A CME (a cloud of charged particles) arrives later. A sudden rise in HF background noise points to a CME impact or a solar flare.
Schematic timeline. Not to scale.
Flare classes run A, B, C, M, X, each 10 times stronger than the one before.
X-ray flare strength on a scale where every step is ×10.
RememberFlares cause short-term blackouts. X is the greatest class.
Southward Bz and rising K or A mean disturbance
Bz is the north-south strength of the interplanetary magnetic field. Southward Bz links up with Earth's field and lets solar-wind energy in, so disturbed conditions become more likely.
Schematic, side view. Bz is the north-south strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).
A rising A-index or K-index means increasing geomagnetic disturbance. The extreme storm on the NOAA scale is G5. Paths through the auroral oval suffer the most absorption.
A-index rises the same way as K. Higher means more disturbance.
RememberBz south: trouble. K and A rising: more disturbance. G5: extreme.
Reports show what was heard; models and indicators predict
What was heard, what is predicted, and a solar indicator.
Reporting networks collect digital-mode and CW signals actually heard. VOACAP models HF propagation. 304 Å is UV emission, tracking the solar flux index.
RememberHeard: reporting networks. Predicted HF: VOACAP. 304 Å: solar UV.